Free Market Easter Bunny

Decades ago parents (mothers, mostly) colored hard-boiled eggs and hid them in the lawn and around the garden. On Easter Sunday, children would go looking for these eggs. Only a few of them asked why a bunny left the eggs, not a chicken.

Traditions vary from family to family and change over time. My mother let us decorate our own eggs. This was a lot of fun and got to be competitive in my family. But I wondered why a rabbit would sneak into the house and hide the eggs I colored (I resented having to find my own eggs), why my parents thought this was okay (it was not okay for me to leave eggs under the sofa), and why my cat couldn’t stop the intruder.

The hunt has mostly moved indoors now, because we’re afraid to eat anything we pick up off our own lawns (knowing what we put into them). Now my kids color eggs the night before but look for chocolate ones. My youngest has seen bags of these eggs in the supermarket, on the shelf at home, in her school. But we expect her to believe that the Easter Bunny has brought them.

We pretend that an intelligent, magical bunny sneaks all over the world, crapping out these little aluminum foil covered chocolate eggs and leaving mysterious baskets full of chocolate bunnies, marshmallow Peeps, shredded green plastic grass, and jellybeans. We pretend to be happy about this, even though those jellybeans look suspiciously like deer droppings and the buds have been chewed off all the daffodils. We act like this is normal. We don’t call the police or the animal control department.

And our children go along with this. They act like it’s fun to pick up after a crazy rabbit, mostly because there’s candy involved and partly because it’s what their parents want them to do.

This is bad parenting. We train our children to believe in something that they know is not real. And they do it for us.

We want our children to make good decisions and to not take candy from strangers, but we fill their lives with imaginary beings full of good intentions.

No wonder they grow up like us and believe in things like the Free Market.

It’s one thing for me to out the Easter Bunny here. I don’t think that’s going to be a surprise to anyone reading this.

The Free Market is a different story.

You have to believe in the Free Market if you want to be a good American. If you don’t believe in the Free Market, then you can expect to be called a socialist.

I used to believe in the Free Market. But the more I learned about it, the more imaginary it became.

Take, for starters, the key transaction of a Free Market: two individuals exchange economic goods. The goods are tangible (product) or non-tangible (service). Each side expects to gain from the exchange because they value the two goods differently. Their choice is voluntary. Both sides have complete information about the actual worth of the goods.

“Complete information” is as real as the Easter Bunny. It’s as accurate a model of the real world as frictionless surfaces in introductory physics. It helps to explain the theory, but it doesn’t exist. Many transactions in the real world involve trying to learn (or hide) information in order to get an edge in the deal. If we had complete information we would not have bubbles and Ponzi schemes.

Then there’s the law of Supply and Demand. In its simplest form: given perfect competition, price equalizes supply and quantity sold. Unlimited supply is available to meet unlimited demand.

This doesn’t explain what happened to oil prices three years ago. It doesn’t explain real estate bubbles. That’s because there’s no such thing as “perfect competition” or “unlimited supply”.

The more you learn about it, the more you realize that the Free Market works great only under idealized conditions. Everyone can benefit (a “Pareto efficient outcome”), but only under a set of assumptions that don’t exist.

In a perfect world a Free Market never crashes, and a block on a level frictionless surface never stops moving. But this isn’t a perfect world.

The Energizer Bunny may keep going and going, but the Free Market does not.

The Free Market Easter Bunny is called the Invisible Hand.

The legend goes like this: if every consumer freely chooses what to buy and every producer freely chooses what to sell, the Invisible Hand will make everyone happy and we’ll all live happily ever after.

Here’s how Adam Smith described it in The Wealth of Nations:

“By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.”

- Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

These days, the Invisible Hand has taken many of our jobs overseas. The more you know about the Free Market, the less you want to trust it.

In the past decade we turned a budget surplus into a deficit by giving a $2 trillion tax break to the very rich. This was not one of those completely voluntary transactions between two fully informed parties; it came down to a 50-50 tie in the Senate that the Vice President broke. Most of us are still waiting for the Invisible Hand to make things right, but it keeps beating us about the neck and face.

To make the Free Market frictionless we removed regulations and let banks get too big to fail. Then we had to bail them out. We should be regulating those banks until they are no longer too big to fail. But the believers want us to deregulate some more, to feed the Invisible Hand.

In America a long time ago, in the 1950s, Wall Street was regulated and boring. The top marginal tax rate was around 90%. We weren’t socialists; we had a controlled capitalist economy. Businesses prospered, people left their doors unlocked, and the Invisible Hand was our friend.

Then we listened to the fairy tales of the Free Market fundamentalists. We took their candy. We believed their lies. And things have gone downhill ever since.

Posted in SMNO | 7 Comments

Climate Scientists Verify Toyota Safety Issue

WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) – U.S. auto safety regulators are turning to climate scientists for help in analyzing Toyota Motor Corp electronic throttles to see if they are behind unintended acceleration, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said on Wednesday.

In addition to a study focusing on the Toyota Prius hybrid by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which is expected to take $160 billion over twenty years and culminate in a clean-room test on Mars, LaHood said the climate experts will lead a separate study of unintended acceleration across the auto industry, a broader issue raised by congressional lawmakers at recent hearings on Toyota.

“We are determined to get to the bottom of unintended acceleration,” LaHood said in an interview with Reuters. “These climate scientists offered to help, and they already have a theory that seems reasonable.”

The Transportation Department’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is just beginning its review of Toyota electronic throttles, which have come under heightened scrutiny following the recall of more than 8.5 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles globally over the past six months.

Both U.S. safety regulators and Toyota have faced scrutiny about whether either did enough to investigate driver complaints of possible electronic throttle problems and other safety issues in recent years.

The climate scientists presented conclusive evidence of sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles to LaHood on Tuesday.

Toyota sudden acceleration hockey stick graph

“For one thousand years, we see no record of sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles,” one of the scientists explained. “It is only very recently that the evidence appears. So we conclude that humans caused the acceleration, possibly by stepping on the gas pedal. And we strongly recommend that humans stop doing that.”

Toyota has repeatedly said that it is confident in the safeguards built into its vehicle electronics and has seen no evidence that they have failed on the road. But former Vice President Al Gore, a former Prius driver, says there has been an obvious cover up. “That’s why I’m starting a new campaign, which I call Raise Your Right Foot,” Gore said. “All we have to do is raise our right feet and take a pledge to not step on the accelerator, and we can save the world. Together.”

LaHood said that unless “something very dramatic” happened with the NASA work, he would go with the graph prepared by the climate scientists.

Other investigations dating to 2004 found no throttle defect, but the agency handled those cases internally.

AMID CONTROVERSY, CALLS FOR MORE STUDY

LaHood has maintained that NHTSA could handle the analysis itself but said suggestions from lawmakers at congressional hearings prompted him to consider outside help.

“We’ve used them before. We’ve heard that they may have some influence,” LaHood said of his decision to ask NASA to help. “And the climate guys just sort of showed up with their graph.”

Some skeptics have rejected the “hockey stick” graph and are calling for more studies. “It’s not just off a little, it’s totally wrong,” Representative Joe Barton (R-Texas) said. “These reports of sudden acceleration are exaggerated. It’s all a secret plot to get you to watch hockey.”

Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-Kentucky) said that reports of sudden acceleration were part of a plot by environmentalists to take over the way Americans drive. “There’s no proof of it. Just today, I wast stuck behind a Camry that wouldn’t go above 35. I tailgated that car for over ten miles and finally had to give it a little nudge with my F-150. Besides, humans have been dealing with speeding up or slowing down since the beginning of time, 5000 years ago.”

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Things are tough all over

This was in the local paper today:

Tight Economy Stretches Into Spring

Budget cuts, tough job outlook force some to scale back

The economic crisis that began with the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2007 and culminated in the near-collapse of the financial industry has been called ‘the great recession’ to distinguish it from the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In a recent interview on CBS’ Sixty Minutes, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner explained that things would have been much worse if the government hadn’t acted decisively in naming the event.

“The trick is to always refer to it without capitalizing anything,” Geithner added.

Some indicators suggest the recession is over but depressive effects continue to be felt. Banks aren’t lending, consumers aren’t buying, and businesses aren’t hiring.

Businesses are wary of the impact of lower consumer confidence on sales. Bethlehem, PA candy manufacturer Just Born had planned a year-long campaign celebrating the 100th anniversary of founder Sam Born immigrating to the United States. Now they are just trying to survive lower than expected Easter sales.

“Maybe it was a mistake, putting all of our eggs in one basket,” a representative from the company said.

“We have a 40,000 sq. ft. warehouse full of Marshmallow Peeps, Easter is next weekend, and the orders aren’t there. It’s a good thing Peeps have a half-life measured in decades.”

People are worried about the future, and their pessimism is visible in the way they’re scaling back their participation in other spring traditions.

“I’ve cut way back, it’s been real hard,” David R. (not his real initial) said, as he described his preparations for this year’s fantasy baseball draft. “I only managed one trip to Florida for spring training games. Not enough time for scouting.”

David expects the season to be a real challenge. “Competition is tough. Three teams in my league are run by guys from AIG. Those guys have a real advantage this year, they can focus most of their day on the game,” he said.

Fantasy baseball players like David, a financial analyst with Morgan Stanley who narrowly avoided losing his job in 2008 and received a six-figure bonus in 2009, used to spend 5-10 hours a day analyzing hundreds of players in the weeks prior to the start of the baseball season. These days, he can’t risk getting caught sorting a spreadsheet of American League first basemen or looking up spring training box scores. David said he’s spent more time researching securities than ball players this spring. He’s not sure whether the recession is over or not, but he thinks Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett is going to have a big year.

The spring event that has taken the worst hit from the uncertain economy falls on April 1.

“We had big plans this year,” M. Harry Horwitz said as he stood in the empty parking lot of a local mall last week.

Horwitz and his brother wanted to open a store in the Danbury Fair Mall, using a space that was last occupied by Filenes.

The Horwitz brothers thought the time was ripe for a “Gags R Us” franchise in northern Fairfield County. But their bank (Morgan Stanley) turned down their request for a line of business credit.

“After that we went to some other banks and did get a loan, but it’s too late,” Jerome Horwitz explained. “This is not a year-round business. It’s a one-day thing.”

“People round here have a pretty good sense of humor,” company spokesman Louis Feinberg said. “But this only works for about a week. We set up in late March, and by the first weekend in April we’re on a beach in the Caribbean counting our profits. Not this year.”

Our contact at Morgan Stanley told us the Horwitz brothers had a business plan that was “full of holes. You can’t run a business for one week a year. It just doesn’t work. If you came in here with a nutty idea like ‘Christmas Tree Shop’ I’d call you a stooge, too. By the way, I changed my mind on Jason Bartlett.”

The brothers promise they’ll be back. “Maybe now is a good time to take a year off,” Harry said. “We just read something on the web that says people are taking less sick days. They say it’s because people are worried about their jobs. No one is going to do something stupid and attention-getting this April 1.”

Jerome disagreed. “People really need a good laugh and a distraction now. Just like they did in the 1930s.”

But a good gag takes time, Harry said. “You’ve got to plan it in advance, pay attention to detail, research it. There has to be just enough real about it to make people fall for it. It has to be subtle but not too subtle. No one has time for that, they’re too busy or worried. A ‘Gags R Us’ store would have helped. As much as we could all use a little silliness, it’s tough to get in the mood for it right now.”

Both brothers have a point, but agree the world would be a duller place without a little nonsense. They’re hoping some of us will step up to the challenge.

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