From FiveThirtyEight.com:
McCain’s chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.
For those of you who prefer to end this campaign on a positive note, Obama’s chances of victory are estimated at 98.1 percent, their highest total of the year.
I realize that for some of you, that’s not a positive note. This is only a prediction. Anything can happen. That’s why they play the game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Washington Redskins tonight. It was a home game for the Redskins. Between 1936 and 2004 there were eighteen presidential elections. For the first seventeen of those, whenever the Redskins won their last home game before Election Day, the incumbent party held on to the White House. And whenever the Redskins lost their last home game before Election Day, the incumbent party lost the White House. The Redskins lost to the Green Bay Packers at home in 2004, but John Kerry was unable to oust George W. Bush, breaking the streak. Still, that’s just under a 95% accuracy rate.
I’m not going too far out on a limb then when I say that western Pennsylvania will determine whether Barack Obama wins the election tomorrow.
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